What Will Markets Do in 2013?
His predictions include:
- The U.S. economy continues to muddle through with nominal growth below 5% for the seventh year in a row
- Europe begins to exit recession by the end of year as the ECB eases and financial stresses lessen
- The U.S. yield curve steepens as financial risks recede and deflationary threats lessen
- U.S. stocks record a new all-time high as stocks advance for the fifth year in a row
- Emerging market equities outperform developed market equities
- After two years of underperformance, U.S. multinationals outperform domestically focused companies
- Large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks and cyclical companies outperform defensive companies
- Dividends increase at a double-digit rate as payout ratios rise
- A nascent U.S. manufacturing renaissance continues, powered by cheap natural gas
- The U.S. government passes a $2–3 trillion ten-year budget deal
Last year, Doll was on the ball with 60% of his calls on the markets including correctly predicting an ease in the European debt crisis, even as Europe experiences a recession and U.S. Treasury rates rising while quality spreads fall.
However, Doll incorrectly predicted that Republicans capture the Senate, retain the House and defeat President Obama in the 2012 election.
