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Financial Services Industry Bracing for a Shake-Up on the Hill

American Banker

By Stacy Kaper
October 31, 2008
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The vast majority of attention regarding Tuesday's election has gone to the presidential campaign, but congressional races are likely to have as much impact on the future of the financial services industry.

A number of veteran banking lawmakers are in jeopardy, and Democrats could pick up enough seats in the Senate to dramatically improve their chances to pass bills that would rein in credit card practices and allow judges to rework mortgages. A bigger Democratic majority could also tilt Congress in a more liberal direction as it undertakes a massive rewrite of financial services oversight.

"There is a degree of skepticism about financial market function that is unprecedented. ... It creates an incredibly difficult political environment" for financial companies, said former Rep. Richard Baker, a senior Republican on the House Financial Services Committee until this year, when he left to run the Managed Funds Association. "Given the prospects that we could see the White House, Senate, and House with distinct majorities in Democrat hands, I certainly believe we will have an interesting year."

The House Financial Services Committee could lose as many as 16 of its 70 members; two are retiring, and 14 others are facing tough re-election challenges. That list includes the panel's No. 2 Democrat, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, the 12-term Pennsylvania lawmaker who chairs the capital markets subcommittee.

In the Senate Banking Committee, two Republicans, Sens. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Wayne Allard of Colorado, are retiring, and another Republican, Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, is in an extremely tight race. Democrats are expected to pick up between 3 and 10 seats in the Senate and are likely to win at least a two-seat edge on the panel, which is currently divided 11 to 10 in favor of Democrats.

Two other banking allies on the Republican side are in danger. Sen. John Sununu, a former Banking Committee member who was a passionate advocate of government-sponsored enterprise reform, is in danger of losing his New Hampshire seat. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is also in trouble. The banking industry credits him with helping to stop a bill that would have let judges rework mortgages in the bankruptcy process.

There is also an open debate about whether Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd will hang on to the gavel or take charge of another committee more aligned with his personal interests.

Though speculation has tamped down since the financial crisis rocketed to the forefront of national priorities, the Connecticut Democrat is known for having a stronger passion for topics like foreign relations and education than for banking.

Even if the Democrats fell just short of a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority, the gains would weaken Republican power to influence bills and give Democrats more running room on regulatory restructuring, credit card practices, mortgage bankruptcy reform, and other priorities.

Francis Creighton, a lobbyist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, said it fears legislation to let judges alter primary mortgage in bankruptcy - an idea the industry has beaten back - would become harder to fend off.

"The big one really is bankruptcy," he said. "The increase in majorities in the House and Senate is going to make it very difficult to win on bankruptcy."

A key element of Democratic efforts to pick up Senate seats has been targeting Sen. Dole. Even though she is a Banking Committee member, she receives far less support from the industry than might be assumed. Several lobbyists said privately that she has done little to assist the industry, aside from opposing an appraisal code of conduct signed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at the behest of New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

Recent polls show Sen. Dole trailing Kay Hagan, a state senator and former banker who aspires to join the Banking Committee, by a few percentage points.

Thad Woodard, the president of the North Carolina Bankers Association, said that even though its policy is to support incumbents, not all bankers in the state are backing Sen. Dole.

Robert Braswell, the president and chief executive of the $600 million-asset Carolina Bank in Greensboro, is a Republican who supports Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign and says the idea of Democrats gaining a filibuster-proof majority "scares the hell out of me."

Mr. Braswell has supported Sen. Dole in the past, but he says he is backing Ms. Hagan. "From my perspective," Sen. Dole "has been a huge disappointment," he said.

He acknowledged that he considers Ms. Hagan a friend, has known her for 13 years, and attends the same church she does.

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