Morgan Stanley Smith Barney says the market is in the middle of a “multi-year bull cycle for equities,” according to its most recent global investment report.
It cites a strong performance in the last four months of 2010, and especially December, as rewarding for investors. And that has remained the story into this year, as global and US equities are “off to a good start,” the report says.
It expects U.S. and global earnings-per-share growth to be close to 15%. As for specifics within its market outlook, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney remains overweight equities, commodities and REITs, and underweight cash and bonds. Within global equities, it has increased its exposure to the U.S. and decreased exposure to Europe and Japan. Within global bonds, it is overweight corporate investment-grade and high-yield, and underweight developed market sovereign and short-term debt.
This outlook 0is in line with other market observers. For example, the BofA/Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers for January shows that 55% of asset allocators plan to overweight global equities. And when On Wall Street recently asked readers in an online poll which asset class they plan to overweight this year, the most popular answer (at 30%) was U.S. and other developed market equities.
On economic growth predictions, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney expects global GDP growth to exceed 4% this year, with emerging markets growing 6% and developed markets 2%.