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The New Guard

By Tony Chapelle
November 1, 2005
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The changes have come fast and furious this year, as four of the five wirehouses crowned new heads of their retail divisions; the fifth will retire sometime next year.

Why are all the leaders at the biggest brokerages moving at once? "This is an industry in crisis," says analyst Richard Bove of Punk Ziegel & Co. "They need a business model that works. If you don't sell a wide array of products, you're dead. The profit margin for selling a share of stock isn't there [any more], but firms are getting resistance from branch managers or big producers who have been doing it this way for 25 years. That's why there are so many management changes going on right now."

A million-dollar producer at Merrill put it another way. "After 20 years of mostly good markets, we've gone sideways in stock prices and earnings. So now, everybody is rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic."

Here's a look at some of the challenges facing each of the new retail chiefs and whether each can make a difference and leave his individual stamp.

JAMES GORMAN | MORGAN STANLEY

Huge Challenge For a Seasoned Executive

The goals are clear for James Gorman. Two months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief financial officer said that the firm wanted its retail unit to reap pre-tax margins of 20% within two to three years--up from last year's 8%.

If he's feeling any pressure about the job that he will began next February, he's not showing it. At a conference in September about diversity on Wall Street, Gorman, 46, was relaxed and entertaining as a speaker and even affable off-stage.

Maybe that's because the tasks looming before him at Morgan are a lot like the ones he faced at Merrill Lynch. But improving the performance of Morgan's retail group may prove tougher.

There are those who have faith. Guy Mozskowski, an analyst at Merrill, says Morgan's share price should improve by $0.20 a share over the next couple of years because of Gorman.

But one rival who heads a New York boutique firm doesn't give Gorman a shot at a turnaround. "He got lucky once, but he won't be able to repeat," the source says. "Merrill's retail system was the best when Gorman got it. Broker production was higher, they had a better platform, branch managers were pretty sharp. That same quality doesn't exist at Morgan. And Gorman is not going to be able to hire talented people to Dean Witter because of the brand and because recruiting packages have skyrocketed."

At Merrill, Gorman's retail group had reported record pre-tax profits for the previous fiscal year and in the most recent quarters. It also led most of its rivals in net revenues and assets per rep. Under his watch from 2001 to 2004, broker production increased by 31%, according to Banc of America Securities equity research. Gorman helped lead Merrill to pre-tax earnings margins of 19% last year from 9% in 2001.

But will Gorman be able to work the same magic for Morgan? One advantage is that he is getting a leaner brokerage force. Six days before he was named Morgan's head of retail, the firm cut 1,000 lower-performing brokers. But Morgan's reps have been in last place in production among the five biggest firms.

At Merrill, Gorman boosted productivity by standardizing the training and the investment process that advisers needed to win assets of the affluent. At Merrill, he reached into the balance sheet, and let out more commercial loans to lure entrepreneurs and more mortgages to help expand reps' arsenals. Can he do that and more at Morgan? He will, at least, be able to bring out bank deposit accounts that company officials have been promising analysts for months, according to recent Morgan conference calls.

Still says headhunter Danny Sarch, "It's a challenge for Morgan Stanley to manage its business and recruit for something that they don't know in what way is going to change."

Gorman declined to be interviewed. But, clearly one of his priorities will be to finish integrating Morgan Stanley's retail division--eight years after the merger between Morgan Stanley & Co. and Dean Witter. Even now, the two groups still operate as separate units. Each use different software systems and operate some back office functions independently, says Robbert VanBatenburg, head of research at Louis Capital Markets.

Gorman also has to help John Mack, Morgan's current chairman, restore credibility at a firm whose reputation has been marred by regulatory problems and the turmoil surrounding the departure of former CEO Philip Purcell. The retail unit recently reported $100 million in compliance and legal costs versus $30 million in profits. Merrill's Mozskowski says that was due, in part, to under-investment in technology. He says Gorman could fix some of that with capital.