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They’re saddled with debt and need to save more, but U.S. consumers will still spend enough to play a role in the economic recovery, said James Swanson, chief investment strategist of MFS Investment Management.
Analysts are actually witnessing a V-shaped phenomenon, Swanson said during the MFS Investment Outlook Conference Tuesday. U.S. companies are more profitable, thanks to higher productivity and unit labor costs that had dropped by almost 6% as of June 30, the latest data available.
The economic downturn has also created pent-up demand for housing and cars, Swanson said. Since the peak of the housing expansion, 4 million families were formed, with housing becoming more affordable now as it was 30 years ago. Also, the average American is driving a 9 ½-year-old vehicle, which is the oldest auto mobile he or she has ever owned, Swanson said. Consumers are also getting a boost from gas and heating oil prices, which plummeted last year and put $160 billion of spending money back into American households. “If this is the worst that could happen to the U.S. consumer, then why wouldn’t they sit around by a fire in their shawl and never go to the mall?” Swanson said.
Another reason that consumers can help improve the U.S. economy is that they have multiple sources of income, Swanson said. During the previous three major U.S. economic crises—the Great Depression, and the recessions of the 1970s and 1980s—about 98% of total average household was brought in by the chief wage earner. Now, on average, wages account for 60% of a household’s income, and the rest comes from investment income, deposits, rental streams, pensions and government payout such as Social Security and unemployment insurance. “The damage to a family losing a job is not as material,” Swanson said.
While the U.S. technically exited its recession with 3.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth last quarter, several issues would dampen sustained growth over the next several years. Consumers are heavily leveraged, taxes are on the rise, governments will need to manage substantial fiscal deficits and the banking sector is not as healthy as it had been in previous recoveries, said Michael Roberge, executive vice president and chief investment officer of U.S. investments for MFS.
But there are long-term opportunities for investors. Companies are recovering from bottomed-out earnings, especially in the financial sector, and their stocks are undervalued. That means large-cap stocks will be very good financial assets over the next decade, Roberge said. Shares of higher-quality companies have underperformed those of lower-quality companies by 40%, form March 9 through Sept. 15, Roberge said. Another potential lure for investors: dividend yields are at levels not seen in 50 years. “Investors will want to own companies that can defend share, have good barriers to entry, have good returns, generate good free cash flow and are good stewards of capital for shareholders,” Roberge said.
The technology sector, in particular, should be very attractive for investors, Swanson said. Technology companies now make up 19% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 and generate 25% of all the free cash flow of publicly traded companies right now in the U.S.
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