Updated Saturday, August 29, 2015 as of 9:36 PM ET

Volcker Rule Costs Tallied as U.S. Regulators Press Deadline

(Bloomberg) -- The fate of the Dodd-Frank Act’s ban on banks trading for their own accounts -- one of the final pieces of the U.S. effort to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis -- may rest with a cluster of economists at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The agency’s 50 economists are attempting to calculate the costs and benefits of the so-called Volcker rule, a linchpin of the financial overhaul that would curb the kind of high-stakes proprietary trading that could lead to crippling losses or bailouts at banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. or Citigroup Inc.

Court challenges that overturned other Dodd-Frank regulations because of faulty cost-benefit analysis have increased pressure on the SEC economists, led by Craig M. Lewis, a veteran finance professor on leave from Vanderbilt University. Their work may determine whether the rule could withstand a similar lawsuit -- an option banks and trade groups say is under consideration.

The economists are racing the clock: Regulators are under pressure from President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew to finish the rule in the next three months. At a recent meeting, Lew gave the heads of the five agencies drafting the rule a series of deadlines designed to make sure the government meets the year-end target, according to a person briefed on the meeting who asked not to be identified because it wasn’t public.

“Hell or high water, we’re getting it done,” Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry said in an interview.

The agencies -- the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and SEC -- have reached agreement on key issues, including the definitions of activities like market-making and portfolio hedging, and are now working on the final text, according to three people familiar with the process who declined to provide details.

Avoiding Bailouts

The rule, named for former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, is one of the remaining pieces of the overhaul of U.S. financial regulation enshrined in Dodd-Frank, which was signed into law by Obama in 2010. It is aimed at preventing banks that hold federally insured customer deposits from engaging in the kind of speculative trading -- with their own capital -- that before Dodd-Frank would have led to a bank failure and government bailout.

Prior to the financial crisis, proprietary trading was a money-maker for banks, and during the crisis, it contributed to losses. The six largest banks’ standalone proprietary-trading desks reported losses in five quarters in 2007 and 2008, losing a combined $15.8 billion, according to a 2011 report from the Government Accountability Office.

Presidential Urgency

Profits are at stake in the final wording of the rule. Standard and Poor’s has estimated that Volcker could sap combined profits at the eight largest U.S. banks by between $2 billion and $10 billion a year, depending on details of the final provisions.

Obama called the regulators to the White House last month to “share his sense of urgency” that Dodd-Frank rules including Volcker be completed soon, according to deputy White House press secretary Josh Earnest.

The message was amplified by Lew on Sept. 10 when he convened a private meeting at the Treasury Department of the agency heads during which he laid out a timetable designed to ensure completion by the end of the year, according to the person briefed on the meeting.

‘Cracking Heads’

“Treasury wants this done” and is “cracking heads” to get there, said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of Washington-based Federal Financial Analytics.

Wall Street banks face a July 21, 2014, deadline for complying with Volcker, which must be formally adopted by all five agencies before it takes effect. If regulators miss their 2013 goal, banks will have three weeks to file for individual extensions, a process expected to cause more delays.

In the two years since the first draft was released, the text may triple in size reach 1,000 pages, according to one person familiar with the draft. The initial proposal posed hundreds of questions to solicit input from affected banks, and more than 18,000 letters flooded in. Reviewing all those comments also slowed the rule-writing.

Emerging Risks

The economics unit -- officially known as the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis -- was established by former SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro in 2009 to help commissioners gauge the impact of new rules as well as spot the kind of emerging risks exposed in the credit crisis the year before. The office has doubled its staff as it’s taken on the task of analyzing dozens of proposed rules under Dodd-Frank. Lewis, an expert in equity analyst behavior and corporate finance policy, took over the helm in 2010.

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