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You're glad 2008, the year from hell, is over. But will 2009 be any better?
There's endless uncertainty as we enter the New Year. The major firms in the retail brokerage arena are still adjusting to the wrenching changes in ownership structure caused by massive write-downs and losses stemming from the foreclosure crisis and tightening of credit.
Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch. Wells Fargo beat out Citigroup for Wachovia and its A.G. Edwards division. JPMorgan grabbed Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers, sadly, collapsed into bankruptcy. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have become bank holding companies. As the year wound down, and the economy seemed to be in freefallthe Dow had plunged below 8,000 and trillions of dollars in equity had vaporizedour panel examined what it all means, and what the future holds for financial advisors.
OWS: Let's start with Merrill Lynch. Are advisors happy with the Bank of America/Merrill retention package?
Bill Willis: No, they're not. I don't know if any broker's ever been happy with any retention packagebut expectations here were considerably higher. Everyone is fairly disappointed, specifically those doing under $1 million in production.
Mindy Diamond: A lot of the sub-million-dollar producers were disappointed, but so were teams. The retention package [was based on] individual production. So a whole group of brokers said: "We did what you wanted us to do, which was to form teams. We've got one guy doing $900,000, another guy doing $800,000-but instead of being valued as a young, growing, fabulous team doing $1.7 million combined, you valued us each at less than $1 million, which means just 75% upfront and having to earn the other 25%."
Still, they're relieved to have been bought out by Bank of Americabecause their clients are relieved to have a deal providing financial stability. But [these advisors] aren't staying because they're in love with Merrill. They're staying because they're not sure there's a better choice.
Michael King: Most of the brokers over $1.75 million are staying. They get 100% to stay plus 50% for deferred comp, which gives them 150%. So if they can get about 250% realistically other places, it's 100% difference-but this way they don't have to take a chance. [BofA] did a very good job only with that group. The others are unhappy.
Steve Rosen: [BofA] gave the right people just enough to stay, but not [enough] to make them happy. In these market conditions, a lot of brokers are scared to move because they can't move their businesses. When producers doing over $1 million-especially [those doing] over $1.7 million with their deferred compensationsubtract [that level of business] from what they'd get from other firms, the bulk of them temporarily are going to stay put.
Most of the producers under $1 million just felt insulted; many of them are probably going to leave even with the market conditions.
Mickey Wasserman: The retention package reflects what all wirehouses are doing: Squeezing out third- and fourth-quintile advisors. They only want the $750,000-plus or $1 million-plus producers. The big question is: Where are the unhappy guys going to go?
Carri Degenhardt-Burke: [BofA President and Chief Executive Officer] Ken Lewis went on 60 Minutes and basically said he had 17,000 brokers who were being paid too much. That means that the payout is going to go down and life is going to be different. In behind-closed-door meetings, [the new management] had said: "Oh, yes, everything is going to be the same." That was basically a lie.
Rick Peterson: The sentiment of the Merrill brokers is that the retention package was not adequate for what they had been contributing. But there's more consternation on their part as to working for a bank in general. Lewis didn't help matters. When [60 Minutes] asked him if he had overpaid, he had a great chance to say, "Yeah, but we bought a great franchise." [Instead] he said, "We're going to wring $7 billion, $8 billion, $9 billion in savings out of this firm." That's the kind of mentality that brokers have been reluctant to accept from banks.
Rich Schwarzkopf: They want to reduce Merrill Lynch from 16,000 down to maybe 10,000 to 12,000 and make it a smaller, tighter firm. Of those eligible, almost 6,200 brokers accepted the package, but the "thundering herd" you hear is the brokers leaving-probably the largest migration of brokers from one firm in the history of Wall Street.
Danny Sarch: I can see Ken Lewis saying, "Wow, we bought Merrill Lynch," and they say, "Oh, you have to give a retention package to the brokers." I can see him saying, "Why?" Only because it's something that became expected. When I take my kids for pizza they expect ice cream afterwards. It's not written down anywhere-they just expect it.
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