Not all is bleak in theconsumer world despite spending numbers that would frighten even the most bullish investor. Even in a recessionary environment, analysts that cover the consumer sector still believe that staples—those items that customers must buy—offer some stability, at least through most of 2009, when firms that sell discretionary items will suffer the worst.

"The consumer-staples area has been outperforming this year partly because of the economy, and we expect it to continue in the year ahead," says Tom Graves, an equity analyst with Standard & Poor's. "It's less likely to be impacted by the reduction in people's lives, as these purchases are not as affected by turmoil in the economy."

People need to put food on their tables, and even if consumers start to trade down at the grocery store—moving from more expensive fresh foods to cheaper canned goods—companies that offer basics such as soup, cereal and age-old favorites like macaroni and cheese are likely to stay afloat during these turbulent times. One such pick is Kraft, which Graves gives a strong buy.

Also on Graves' radar? Smuckers, which recently completed its acquisition of Folgers coffee, a move he eyes positively. The deal increases market share, providing the chance to expand as the recession forces competitors to pull back.

Still, there are some who believe the staples sector, despite the boost from a slowing economy, is actually heading for a slight downturn itself. With staples already in a third year of outperformance, 2009 traditionally would be the year companies in the sector would start to trend down, falling out of favor with the market, says Steven Ralston, senior analyst with Zacks Investment Research.

"While this is the perfect storm for consumer staples, we're very concerned for 2009 and 2010 on a relative-performance basis," Ralston says. "We'll be coming out of the recession at some point and people will look for capital goods and tech and leave staples in the dust."

Ralston points to General Mills, which he says has reached absolute historical highs this year. Despite the push toward more grocery items now, Ralston believes these firms will begin to fare poorly starting this year relative to the broader market.

"This is the tail end for staples and not time to jump into these stocks," says Ralston. "Looking in the rearview mirror, everything is looking great. You should hold them and within six months be out of them. Sell—don't buy."

In the consumer discretionary sector, on the other hand, the wounded are already falling. Circuit City, the country's second-largest electronics store, filed for Chapter 11 last November. This followed the bankruptcies of Sharper Image and Shoe Pavilion earlier in the year, and belt-tightening at stores such as DSW, as consumers curtail their spending due to fears of a prolonged downturn.