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Prior to his 16 years as a senior researcher and spokesperson with Lipper, he was a sell-side analyst for a regional brokerage firm in Denver. He spoke to Elizabeth Wine about strategies for advisors with clients nearing retirement.
1. With widespread job uncertainty, should investors keep locking up money in their 401(k)s now?
People who are not working in a job that's really secure should be putting aside the money they would put in those retirement plans into a separate, non-retirement account. Of course, this becomes a tough decision when your 401(k) comes with a significant company match. But a lot of companies have reduced or suspended the match, so the decision may not be so tough.
Let's say a client stopped contributing to her 401(k) last year, but now she feels better about her job situation. The problem is she can't just put a slug of money into her 401(k) and restart it because 401(k) plans have a limit of either $16,500 a year, or, more commonly, a percentage of a worker's salary. So it's hard to get that savings back into a 401(k) as completely as you'd like. An IRA is one possible alternate, but there are maximums, and changes coming in 2011, as well as possible penalties for early withdrawals. Brokers who have clients in this situation need to really listen and ask a lot of probing questions.
2. Does buy-and-hold still make sense?
I've never thought buy-and-hold made sense. I see a world that changes all the time. Not as radically as what we saw in the last couple of years, but certain industries and particular stocks will always do better than broad market averages. But the big recent changes in the business world means a different outlook in terms of expectations. It means taking a new look at each company and saying, 'Knowing what I know about the world now, would I buy this now-not two years ago-but now?'
If the client is buy-and-hold oriented, the strategy ought to be buy-and-hold and rebalance. Pay attention to asset allocations. When the market comes up, exercise your discipline and tell your clients to sell the winners, so when the market goes down again, they're not hurt so badly. Selling stocks in an up market doesn't necessarily mean you're going to pay taxes, it depends on which ones you choose.
3. Given those big changes in the world, what are your other big worries?
I believe inflation will come back. All the extra liquidity being thrown into the system from the Fed and other central bankers can't be soaked up without raising interest rates. And taxes will probably rise. For the current administration, anybody making over $250,000 has a great big bull's-eye on their back. With all the things being promised out of Washington, will that number get lower, or will they find more ways to tax people based on wealth versus income? Brokers can provide a good and worthwhile service by raising some of those out-of-the-box thoughts. If you're going to be a target, it's better to make a mistake by being too conservative and over-saving than the opposite.
4. If there is inflation, how can advisors help protect clients' purchasing power?
Look at ways to protect yourself against the declining U.S. dollar. A nifty way to do that is with currency-oriented ETFs. You can use them in pairs, depending on which side of the dollar you want to be on. You can also diversify into other currencies. If you think resource-rich countries will do well in an environment where people are looking for inflation hedges, bet on their currencies.
5. What's your greatest concern for baby boomers and the generation right behind them?
My biggest concern is that this whole generation of people are in many cases pretty financially illiterate. And their savings rate has been low and they've taken the Alfred E. Neuman [of Mad Magazine] approach: "What, me worry? Everything's going to be fine." It's not going to be true. For the broker, the point is to educate them. Don't be afraid to have a smart client. They won't leave you just because they're smart.
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