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SHANGHAI — For the itinerant financial journalist flying into Shanghai these days — is a jarring disconnect between the worrying news in the outside world concerning China and the bustling reality on the ground.
Outside of the People's Republic of China, the news is all about the risks of a bursting property bubble, or of rising worker unrest, or of a slowing economy as exports to Europe or the U.S. fade. Once in Shanghai, you feel like you're in any European city, except that the buildings are much taller and the signs are in Chinese. Late-model Japanese, European and even American cars clog the streets, and well-dressed Chinese men and women throng the sidewalks. Not a bicycle is to be seen since these days wealthier people drive cars while the less well-heeled ride on a shiny new subway that in 15 short years boasts more than 400 miles of track, making it bigger than the huge but creaking century-old New York City subway system.
Of course, Shanghai is not all of China by a long shot (and all of China is certainly not like Shanghai), but it is the commercial heart of China. Meanwhile, the reports from the hinterland are pretty stunning too.
"Things are amazing in China," exclaims an enthusiastic Sean Lynch, global investment strategist for Wells Fargo Private Bank. Lynch reports that he was in both Shanghai and in Chongqing, a huge city/administrative region of over 30 million people in the center of the country. "Shanghai certainly looked busy," he says, "but so does Chongqing." With considerable understatement, he notes that the latter city is "in the process of building out," with massive numbers of apartment buildings being constructed apace to accommodate all the new workers moving in from the countryside. "You don't see many empty buildings in all that construction," he says.
Lynch is quick to admit that there are "a lot of short-term concerns" about China's economy and about its political system, which is about to undergo a change of leadership at the top. "People don't know if the tightening that the Chinese government did in 2010 [to tackle inflation and concerns about a property bubble] is starting to have an effect, or whether they should now loosen credit so that they don't have a hard landing," he says. "And then there are concerns about slowing exports because of the problems in Europe." That said, Lynch adds, "We're coming back from our trip to China feeling that we should continue to overweight emerging markets, but remain neutral on China, not negative." At the same time, he says, noting that the Chinese stock market dropped 21% in 2011, "One thing that gives us comfort about China is that valuations on the equity side look pretty reasonable right now. That gives us a way in if we want to increase holdings in China."
Even more enthusiastic about China's investment prospects is Brian Rose, senior investment strategist at UBS. "We have a positive view of China," he says. "Some of the problems there have led investors to flee the country, and now it's actually cheaper than the average emerging market. So actually, while we see all the problems-social unrest, property bubble and so on — still we think the long-term growth story is compelling, and because of all the concerns investors have had, the valuations are actually quite low." He adds, "If investors can overcome their fears, we expect to see more positive news about China coming in the second half of this year."
Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial, says making predictions about the direction of the Chinese economy, and about the potential for Chinese investments, got a little harder lately, because of the central government's intervention in China's equity markets. "It used to be that we looked at the Shanghai Index as a leading indicator for global markets," she says, adding that it also gave some indication about when the Chinese economy was expanding.
But Krosby says lately, after a bad year for Chinese stocks, the government had intervened by using its new sovereign wealth fund, and also by instructing Chinese insurance companies and financial companies to join it in investing in equities, thus "manipulating" the market. "So now we're looking for other confirmation that things are turning toward growth," she says, citing the Australian dollar gaining strength, or industrial metals picking up." The evidence, for example, of rising copper prices, suggests that this is starting to happen.
For now, Krosby suggests that investors can benefit from Chinese growth more safely by investing in companies that have substantial investments in China, particularly those that are playing for the Chinese consumer market. These include Yum! Brands, which is opening prodigious numbers of new Pizza Hut and KFC outlets in China, and also McDonald's. General Motors, too, is big in China, where it reportedly sold more cars last year than it did in the U.S.
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