With a few months to go in the presidential campaign, pundits are poring over every scrap of new economic data-notably, unemployment-for a clue as to whether President Barack Obama will be reelected.
But the best predictor, many say, is the stock market. If the S&P 500 rises in the three months before the election, most likely the President will win a second term, according to market historians. So far this year, it's up 10.6%.
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