With a few months to go in the presidential campaign, pundits are poring over every scrap of new economic data-notably, unemployment-for a clue as to whether President Barack Obama will be reelected.

But the best predictor, many say, is the stock market. If the S&P 500 rises in the three months before the election, most likely the President will win a second term, according to market historians. So far this year, it's up 10.6%.

Register or login for access to this item and much more

All On Wall Street content is archived after seven days.

Community members receive:
  • All recent and archived articles
  • Conference offers and updates
  • A full menu of enewsletter options
  • Web seminars, white papers, ebooks

Don't have an account? Register for Free Unlimited Access